Supply Chains Adjust to Higher Tariffs and New Trade Patterns

China’s exports to Latin America, Africa, and Europe continued to climb in 2025, even as global companies shift parts of their supply chains to Southeast Asia to reduce tariff exposure and geopolitical risks, according to Maersk’s latest Global Market Update.

Total market data shows that China’s share of global container exports has grown to 37%, with shipments climbing across multiple regions:

Latin America: Exports rose 17% in Q2 2025, with China’s market share up from 27% in 2019 to 38% in the first half of this year.

Africa: China now holds 39% of container volumes, up from 32% in 2019, led by technology, mining and metals, chemicals, and automotive.

Europe: Imports from China made up 40% of container imports in the first half of 2025, compared to 35% in 2019.

At the same time, manufacturers and retailers are diversifying their operations. Production is increasingly shifting to Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Philippines as companies shift production to avoid tariff risks

U.S. demand stays stronger than expected

In the U.S., fears of a major inventory buildup tied to tariff front-loading did not fully materialize. While some manufacturers accelerated shipments, inventory levels largely stayed aligned with demand, according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

Consumer demand also surprised to the upside:

• 4.2% year-on-year growth in July and August 2025.

• Inventory-to-sales ratios stayed leaner than expected.

Cargo flows shifted at the same time:

• China to North America: Container volumes fell 15% year-over-year in Q2.

• Southeast Asia to North America: Volumes rose 17% (Jan–July).

• Europe to North America: Volumes increased 4% in the same period.

“Customers are understandably being cautious,” said Karsten Kildahl, Chief Commercial Officer at Maersk. “The review frequency of costs and risks is unusually high, as customers explore sourcing and supply chain optimisation during this period of somewhat blurred visibility. The need for a high degree of flexibility remains the key for our partners in their efforts to maintain a competitive edge despite the heightened volatility.”

Tariffs hit businesses hard

Tariffs are weighing heavily on trade. The U.S. recently added a 15% import tariff on most European Union goods, a 50% tariff on Indian imports, and is still in negotiations with China after delaying a planned 145% tariff.

As a result, U.S. importers are now paying:

• 25% average tariff rate (as of Sept. 30, 2025).

• Up from just 5% a year ago.

The situation remains uncertain, but many companies now view higher tariffs as a long-term reality in their supply chains.